Presidential Cycles And The NAAIM Exposure Index Indicator
First a reminder: We are done backtesting all 75 candlestick patterns and expect to publish it soon. Read more here:
Presidential Cycles
Stock market performance indicates that the US presidential cycle might have an impact on the stock market. To a certain degree, it makes sense because of future expectations of federal spending and business climate.
For example, research shows that midterm election years have been the worst in the cycle. Both 2018 and 2022 were such years, and they happen to be poor (at least 2022 has been miserable thus far).
Please read more in our detailed explanation here:
President Election Cycles Stocks — What Are They? (Backtest)
NAAIM Exposure Index Indicator
The NAAIM is an abbreviation for the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM).
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets reported by its members. The logic is that it can be used as a contrarian indicator:
When the exposure is low, it might signal that sellers are done. When those on the sidelines later put capital back into the stock market, prices might rise.
Is this correct? We backtested two hypotheses:
This is our free newsletter. For a list of the Bonus Articles we have for our Supporting Members, please press here.
Alternatively, you can test our subscription: